Climate experts are warning that an impending “super” El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion economic hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from the hardest-hit areas, according to the African Development Bank’s top climate official.
Anthony Nyong, the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) director for climate change and green growth, told Reuters that the event is expected to reduce GDP in heavily affected countries by 1% to 2% on average, representing a continent-wide loss of up to $20 billion. He said the effects are unlikely to be one-off, with economic and social impacts potentially lasting for years.
The bank says the phenomenon will worsen food and water insecurity, undermine government finances and strain banking sectors as disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to service debt.
Agriculture, which employs more than half of Africa’s workforce, is expected to bear the brunt, with prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall reducing crop yields and livestock production.The AfDB estimates that African farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year amid high energy prices and fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The fishing industry is also expected to be hard hit due to rising sea temperatures and storms, with fisheries productivity projected to fall by 1% to 4%.
El Niño typically brings drought to southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa. During the 2023–2024 El Niño event, this led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices and record-breaking sea-level spikes along parts of the continent’s coastline. The bank identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe impacts.
Nyong said Africa will now need as much as $100 billion in adaptation finance this year given the expected strength of the El Niño, on top of existing needs. He warned that the additional climate shock could add another $30 billion to $50 billion to the continent’s financing gap.
The AfDB has urged governments and international partners to accelerate investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, early warning systems and social protection to cushion vulnerable communities and reduce the long-term economic damage from the event.
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