The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has warned that the strengthening El Niño phenomenon could worsen climate-related pressures on agriculture, water resources, public health and livelihoods across West Africa, urging countries to strengthen early-warning and preparedness measures.
In an advisory issued by its Disaster Operations Centre (EDOC), ECOWAS said the climate phenomenon, expected to reach strong to very strong intensity towards the end of 2026, could influence rainfall patterns and temperatures across the region, with potential consequences extending into 2027. The warning comes as West Africa transitions from the rainy season into the dry and dusty Harmattan period, with rainfall patterns in 2026 highly variable and above-normal temperatures persisting across much of the region.
ECOWAS cautioned that the effects of El Niño would not be uniform across West Africa, as other climate drivers, particularly conditions in the tropical Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian oceans, could influence its regional impact. While the phenomenon has frequently been associated with reduced rainfall, prolonged dry spells and higher temperatures in parts of the Sahel and West Africa, it does not automatically translate into unfavourable seasonal conditions.
According to the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre, above-average temperatures are forecast across almost all of West Africa between September and November 2026, while some coastal areas along the Gulf of Guinea could experience intense rainfall and localised flooding during the second rainy season. In the western part of the region, below-average rainfall is expected in parts of Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, while southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin are expected to see rainfall close to average or locally above normal.
On agriculture and food security, ECOWAS warned that late-season dry spells and above-average temperatures could reduce crop yields, soil moisture and pasture availability in affected areas, while localised flooding could damage farmlands and infrastructure. The food security situation will require close monitoring throughout the 2026/2027 season, particularly in communities already vulnerable to climate-related shocks.
The Commission also identified water availability as a major concern, explaining that below-average rainfall and increased evaporation could reduce water reserves, river flows and pasture resources during the dry season, increasing pressure on agricultural, pastoral, hydroelectric and domestic water supply systems. The World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organisation have warned that El Niño could push nearly 6 million more people into hunger across West and Central Africa, with a 12 per cent increase in food insecurity projected for the region.
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