The United Nations said on Tuesday that an Ebola outbreak could cost Africa up to $3.6 billion and hundreds of thousands of jobs, potentially causing a development crisis. The outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there is no tested vaccine or treatment, has infected 1,307 people and killed 377 in the Democratic Republic of Congo since being declared on the 15th of May. A smaller number of cases have also been reported in Uganda, with experts warning of the possibility of the virus spreading to South Sudan and other neighbours.
UNDP Resident Representative in the DRC, Damien Mama, was direct about what is at stake: “If we have the resources and we step up, we can contain this outbreak and prevent further losses. If we do not, this health emergency risks becoming a much deeper and prolonged development crisis across the region and potentially the continent.”
Three Alarming Scenarios, Stated By The UNDP
The UNDP outlined three scenarios for the outbreak. In the best scenario, where the epidemic remains contained in the two countries, the cost is $1 billion for Congo’s GDP. In the worst-case scenario, the disease spreads to countries including Rwanda and Angola and coincides with higher fuel costs linked to the Iran crisis, cutting continental GDP by $3.6 billion and resulting in 328,000 job losses.
The UNDP assessment also warns that the outbreak could push 985,000 more people into poverty, with women disproportionately suffering the economic and health fallout. Disrupted medical services could additionally result in up to 2,520 excess infant deaths in the DRC from non-Ebola causes.
The Funding Gap
According to Africa CDC, the amount of funds needed to fight Ebola has increased dramatically, from $518 million to $1.4 billion. About $910 million has been committed by partners, but only 13 per cent of it has been disbursed. That gap is not merely an accounting problem. In outbreak response, timing is everything, and delayed disbursement slows laboratory testing, logistics, treatment centres, and community awareness campaigns.
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has elevated its Ebola response to its highest emergency level, warning that without stronger interventions the outbreak could eventually exceed 20,000 cases.
The conflict-hit province of Ituri is the epicentre of the DRC’s 17th Ebola outbreak. In many areas, the virus has spread at funerals, where highly infectious bodies are handled. Aid workers have faced sustained community mistrust that has complicated efforts to plan safe burials and conduct contact tracing in the affected zones.
The UN’s message is unambiguous: the cost of acting now is a fraction of the cost of acting late, and the continent cannot afford to find out what the worst-case scenario looks like in practice.
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