Nigeria’s exports to other African countries jumped 122% in naira terms in the first half of 2026 to N10.72 trillion, but economists warn the surge is largely a “naira illusion” driven by currency devaluation and inflation rather than a comparable rise in real export earnings.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that exports to Africa rose from N4.82 trillion in H1 2025 to N10.72 trillion in H1 2026. However, crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea together accounted for 94.75% of those exports, valued at about N10.15 trillion, up from a 90.24% share worth N4.35 trillion a year earlier.
The term “naira illusion” refers to the appearance of rapid trade growth that is driven mainly by the naira’s devaluation and the resulting inflation, rather than by any real increase in the dollar value of goods traded. In other words, when the naira loses value, the same volume of exports translates into a much higher naira figure even if dollar earnings are flat or only modestly higher.
Dr. Ayo Teriba, CEO of Economic Associates, warned against reading Nigeria’s naira-denominated trade figures at face value. He said the pattern reflects the currency’s depreciation and inflation, not necessarily a structural transformation of Nigeria’s export base or competitiveness in African markets.
Despite repeated policy commitments to diversify exports, Nigeria’s trade with Africa remains heavily concentrated in hydrocarbons and related products. In H1 2026, crude oil and refined petroleum products dominated the export basket, while non-oil goods made up only a small fraction of the N10.72 trillion total.
In the second quarter alone, Nigeria exported N6.65 trillion worth of goods to Africa and imported N1.10 trillion, generating a large trade surplus with the continent. Togo, South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Egypt together absorbed nearly three-quarters of Nigeria’s African exports, with crude oil, gas oil, jet fuel, motor spirit and urea making up over 90% of shipments.
For policymakers, the NBS figures present a mixed picture. On one hand, Nigeria is selling far more to Africa than it buys, and the trade surplus with the continent has widened sharply. On the other, the composition of exports suggests that gains are still tied to volatile global oil prices and domestic refining dynamics, including output from the Dangote Refinery, rather than broad-based industrial or agricultural export growth.
Economists argue that unless non-oil exports grow in real terms and Nigeria reduces its reliance on a narrow range of commodities, headline naira figures will continue to overstate the strength of the country’s integration into African value chains under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
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