Uganda earned $151.7 million from coffee exports in May, a decline of about 38 per cent from the $244 million recorded in the same month last year, according to an Agriculture Ministry report released on Friday. Export volumes also fell sharply, with Uganda shipping 617,491 sixty-kilogram bags compared with 793,445 bags in May 2025, a drop of more than 22 percent.
The agriculture ministry attributed the fall in prices to expectations of improved supply conditions in the coming months, particularly in light of the favourable outlook for Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer. The ministry did not separately explain the decline in export volumes.
The May figures continue a softening trend that has been building across 2026. Uganda’s coffee export earnings declined by approximately 10 per cent year-on-year in April, with the country exporting coffee worth $155.5 million compared to $173.4 million in the same month in 2025. In March, export earnings declined by 13.56 per cent year-on-year despite a 3.19 per cent increase in export volumes, as the average export price per kilogram fell to $4.31 from $5.14 in March 2025.
Despite the monthly declines, the longer-term picture remains more positive. Over the 12 months to April 2026, coffee export earnings increased by 24 per cent to reach $2.4 billion, highlighting the sector’s resilience amid fluctuating global market conditions.
The price pressure reflects a structural shift in global supply expectations rather than a problem specific to Uganda. Analysts say global coffee prices will continue to depend on weather conditions in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, as well as shipping costs, currency movements, and global demand.
The government continues to encourage local roasting and processing to increase export earnings and reduce reliance on raw bean exports, with officials saying expanding domestic value addition will strengthen Uganda’s position in international markets while generating higher returns for the economy. That push toward value addition is more urgent now than ever: a country that earns its foreign exchange from raw commodity exports will always be exposed to price swings it cannot control. Processing more of its coffee at home is how Uganda changes that equation.
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